VIENNA - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is grappling with significant gaps in its monitoring of Iran's nuclear program, a challenge that could complicate any potential deal between the United States and Iran [1][2][3]. This development comes as former U.S. President Donald Trump considers re-engaging with Iran on nuclear matters.

In a revealing incident last year, U.N. inspectors at Iran's Fordow nuclear site, located in a mountain south of Tehran, observed trucks delivering advanced uranium-enriching centrifuges. While Iran had notified the IAEA about the installation of hundreds of extra IR-6 centrifuges, the origin of these sophisticated machines remained a mystery to the inspectors [1][2].

This episode highlights a critical issue: the IAEA has lost track of key elements of Iran's nuclear activities since the U.S. withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal. An official familiar with the U.N. monitoring work, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters, "The inspectors had no idea where the sophisticated machines had come from." [2]

The IAEA's quarterly reports reveal several blind spots in their monitoring efforts. These include uncertainty about the number of centrifuges Iran possesses and the locations where these machines and their components are manufactured and stored [2][3]. Additionally, the agency has lost its ability to conduct snap inspections, further limiting its oversight capabilities.

These monitoring challenges stem from Iran's response to the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal. Tehran has gradually reduced its compliance with the agreement, including limiting IAEA access to its nuclear facilities [1][2][3].

As discussions of a potential new deal between the U.S. and Iran circulate, experts emphasize the need to address these monitoring gaps. Any future agreement would need to restore and potentially enhance the IAEA's ability to comprehensively track Iran's nuclear activities to ensure effective verification and build international confidence [1][2].

The situation underscores the complex interplay between international diplomacy, nuclear non-proliferation efforts, and the technical challenges of monitoring sophisticated nuclear programs. As global powers consider their approach to Iran's nuclear ambitions, the IAEA's capacity to provide accurate and comprehensive oversight remains a crucial factor in shaping future negotiations and agreements.